Probably Football

Matches

National 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 13:30

Orleans vs Villefranche

  1. Orleans51%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Villefranche21%

1.80 expected goals for Orleans

0.99 expected goals for Villefranche

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Orleans has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Villefranche win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Villefranche defence, which lets in 24% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Villefranche attack, which scores 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Orleans

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Orleans attack−4%
  3. Villefranche defence+24%

Expected goals1.80

Villefranche

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Villefranche attack−18%
  2. Orleans defence−11%

Expected goals0.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.