Probably Football

Matches

National 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 13:30

Le Puy Foot vs Caen

  1. Le Puy Foot39%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Caen30%

1.40 expected goals for Le Puy Foot

1.20 expected goals for Caen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Le Puy Foot has the edge (39%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Caen win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Le Puy Foot defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Caen attack, which scores 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Le Puy Foot

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Le Puy Foot attack+1%
  3. Caen defence−9%

Expected goals1.40

Caen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Caen attack+21%
  2. Le Puy Foot defence−27%

Expected goals1.20

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.