Saturday 31 October, 13:30
La Roche VF vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
- La Roche VF57%
- Draw28%
- Bourg-en-bresse 0115%
1.73 expected goals for La Roche VF
0.70 expected goals for Bourg-en-bresse 01
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes La Roche VF the clear favourite: 57% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bourg-en-bresse 01 attack, which scores 38% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the La Roche VF defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
La Roche VF
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- La Roche VF attack+16%
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 defence−1%
Expected goals1.73
Bourg-en-bresse 01
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 attack−38%
- La Roche VF defence−17%
Expected goals0.70
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Over 3.5 goals23%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score51%
- La Roche VF or draw85%
- Draw or Bourg-en-bresse 0143%
- No draw72%
Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.