Probably Football

Matches

National 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 13:30

Fleury 91 vs Gobelins

  1. Fleury 9153%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Gobelins18%

1.56 expected goals for Fleury 91

0.71 expected goals for Gobelins

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Fleury 91 has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Gobelins win at 18%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Gobelins attack, which scores 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Fleury 91 defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Fleury 91

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Fleury 91 attack+24%
  3. Gobelins defence−17%

Expected goals1.56

Gobelins

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gobelins attack−32%
  2. Fleury 91 defence−24%

Expected goals0.71

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.