Probably Football

Matches

National 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 13:30

Bastia vs Quevilly

  1. Bastia40%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Quevilly28%

1.15 expected goals for Bastia

0.91 expected goals for Quevilly

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Bastia has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Quevilly win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bastia defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Bastia attack, which scores 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bastia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bastia attack−20%
  3. Quevilly defence−5%

Expected goals1.15

Quevilly

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Quevilly attack−7%
  2. Bastia defence−28%

Expected goals0.91

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals62%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.