Sevilla vs Alaves
- Sevilla41%
- Draw28%
- Alaves31%
1.51 expected goals for Sevilla
1.36 expected goals for Alaves
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Sevilla has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Alaves win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sevilla attack, which scores 61% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Alaves defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 8.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Sevilla
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Sevilla attack+61%
- Alaves defence−38%
Expected goals1.51
Alaves
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Alaves attack+58%
- Sevilla defence−36%
Expected goals1.36
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals32%
- Over 4.5 goals16%
- Both teams score56%
- Sevilla or draw69%
- Draw or Alaves59%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.4 expected
4.8 for Sevilla and 3.6 for Alaves
- Over 8.5 corners45%
- Over 9.5 corners35%
- Over 10.5 corners26%
Cards
4.0 expected
2.0 for Sevilla and 2.1 for Alaves
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards38%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
27.4 expected
15.1 for Sevilla and 12.4 for Alaves
- Over 20.5 shots83%
- Over 22.5 shots74%
- Over 24.5 shots64%
Fouls
24.0 expected
12.9 for Sevilla and 11.2 for Alaves
- Over 20.5 fouls74%
- Over 22.5 fouls60%
- Over 24.5 fouls45%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.