Probably Football

Matches

La Liga (Spain)

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo

  1. Rayo Vallecano34%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Celta Vigo36%

1.09 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano

1.23 expected goals for Celta Vigo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Celta Vigo defence, which lets in 54% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Rayo Vallecano defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rayo Vallecano

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rayo Vallecano attack+56%
  3. Celta Vigo defence−54%

Expected goals1.09

Celta Vigo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Celta Vigo attack+43%
  2. Rayo Vallecano defence−37%

Expected goals1.23

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.1 for Rayo Vallecano and 4.2 for Celta Vigo

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.3 for Rayo Vallecano and 2.3 for Celta Vigo

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

29.5 expected

17.5 for Rayo Vallecano and 12.0 for Celta Vigo

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.2 for Rayo Vallecano and 13.1 for Celta Vigo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.