Elche vs Valencia
- Elche46%
- Draw29%
- Valencia25%
1.48 expected goals for Elche
1.09 expected goals for Valencia
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Elche has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Valencia win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Valencia defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Elche defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.3 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Elche
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Elche attack+65%
- Valencia defence−41%
Expected goals1.48
Valencia
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Valencia attack+34%
- Elche defence−40%
Expected goals1.09
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals73%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Over 3.5 goals26%
- Over 4.5 goals12%
- Both teams score52%
- Elche or draw75%
- Draw or Valencia54%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.3 expected
5.1 for Elche and 4.2 for Valencia
- Over 8.5 corners55%
- Over 9.5 corners44%
- Over 10.5 corners35%
Cards
4.6 expected
2.0 for Elche and 2.5 for Valencia
- Over 3.5 cards67%
- Over 4.5 cards48%
- Over 5.5 cards31%
Shots
27.3 expected
14.9 for Elche and 12.4 for Valencia
- Over 20.5 shots83%
- Over 22.5 shots74%
- Over 24.5 shots63%
Fouls
24.9 expected
12.0 for Elche and 12.9 for Valencia
- Over 20.5 fouls78%
- Over 22.5 fouls66%
- Over 24.5 fouls51%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.