Barcelona vs Alaves
- Barcelona88%
- Draw8%
- Alaves4%
3.49 expected goals for Barcelona
0.99 expected goals for Alaves
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Barcelona the clear favourite: 88% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Barcelona attack, which scores 306% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Barcelona defence, which lets in 54% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 73% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 8.7 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Barcelona
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Barcelona attack+306%
- Alaves defence−43%
Expected goals3.49
Alaves
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Alaves attack+58%
- Barcelona defence−54%
Expected goals0.99
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals99%
- Over 1.5 goals94%
- Over 2.5 goals73%
- Over 3.5 goals65%
- Over 4.5 goals46%
- Both teams score58%
- Barcelona or draw96%
- Draw or Alaves12%
- No draw92%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.7 expected
5.4 for Barcelona and 3.3 for Alaves
- Over 8.5 corners48%
- Over 9.5 corners38%
- Over 10.5 corners28%
Cards
3.7 expected
1.6 for Barcelona and 2.1 for Alaves
- Over 3.5 cards51%
- Over 4.5 cards31%
- Over 5.5 cards17%
Shots
29.5 expected
20.6 for Barcelona and 8.8 for Alaves
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots80%
- Over 24.5 shots70%
Fouls
23.7 expected
11.8 for Barcelona and 11.9 for Alaves
- Over 20.5 fouls72%
- Over 22.5 fouls57%
- Over 24.5 fouls42%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.