Probably Football

Matches

La Liga (Spain)

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

  1. Athletic Club40%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Real Sociedad35%

1.78 expected goals for Athletic Club

1.77 expected goals for Real Sociedad

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Sociedad attack, which scores 144% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Athletic Club defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 65%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Athletic Club

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Athletic Club attack+77%
  3. Real Sociedad defence−33%

Expected goals1.78

Real Sociedad

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Real Sociedad attack+144%
  2. Athletic Club defence−47%

Expected goals1.77

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.4 for Athletic Club and 3.9 for Real Sociedad

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.6 for Athletic Club and 2.2 for Real Sociedad

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

27.8 expected

17.1 for Athletic Club and 10.6 for Real Sociedad

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

22.5 expected

11.0 for Athletic Club and 11.5 for Real Sociedad

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.