Castellón vs Eibar
- Castellón50%
- Draw28%
- Eibar22%
1.53 expected goals for Castellón
1.02 expected goals for Eibar
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Castellón has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Eibar win at 22%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Castellón defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Castellón attack, which scores 55% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.0 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Castellón
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Castellón attack+55%
- Eibar defence−34%
Expected goals1.53
Eibar
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Eibar attack+22%
- Castellón defence−38%
Expected goals1.03
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals73%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Over 3.5 goals26%
- Over 4.5 goals12%
- Both teams score50%
- Castellón or draw78%
- Draw or Eibar50%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.0 expected
6.0 for Castellón and 4.0 for Eibar
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners51%
- Over 10.5 corners41%
Cards
5.0 expected
2.7 for Castellón and 2.3 for Eibar
- Over 3.5 cards73%
- Over 4.5 cards56%
- Over 5.5 cards38%
Shots
27.0 expected
16.5 for Castellón and 10.6 for Eibar
- Over 20.5 shots82%
- Over 22.5 shots72%
- Over 24.5 shots61%
Fouls
24.4 expected
12.0 for Castellón and 12.4 for Eibar
- Over 20.5 fouls76%
- Over 22.5 fouls63%
- Over 24.5 fouls48%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.