Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Valladolid vs Leganes

  1. Valladolid47%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Leganes24%

1.29 expected goals for Valladolid

0.93 expected goals for Leganes

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Valladolid has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Leganes win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Leganes attack, which scores 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Valladolid

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Valladolid attack−3%
  3. Leganes defence−12%

Expected goals1.29

Leganes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Leganes attack−24%
  2. Valladolid defence−10%

Expected goals0.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals66%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.9 for Valladolid and 4.0 for Leganes

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

5.3 expected

2.4 for Valladolid and 2.9 for Leganes

  1. Over 3.5 cards78%
  2. Over 4.5 cards61%
  3. Over 5.5 cards44%

Shots

30.2 expected

19.3 for Valladolid and 10.9 for Leganes

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

28.8 expected

13.6 for Valladolid and 15.2 for Leganes

  1. Over 20.5 fouls93%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls86%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls76%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.