Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Oviedo vs Las Palmas

  1. Oviedo45%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Las Palmas27%

1.43 expected goals for Oviedo

1.15 expected goals for Las Palmas

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Oviedo has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Las Palmas win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Oviedo defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Las Palmas defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Oviedo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Oviedo attack+11%
  3. Las Palmas defence−15%

Expected goals1.43

Las Palmas

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Las Palmas attack+15%
  2. Oviedo defence−26%

Expected goals1.15

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.1 for Oviedo and 4.5 for Las Palmas

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

5.6 expected

2.5 for Oviedo and 3.1 for Las Palmas

  1. Over 3.5 cards81%
  2. Over 4.5 cards66%
  3. Over 5.5 cards49%

Shots

28.0 expected

16.7 for Oviedo and 11.2 for Las Palmas

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

28.1 expected

14.4 for Oviedo and 13.7 for Las Palmas

  1. Over 20.5 fouls91%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls83%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls72%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.