Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Mallorca vs Cadiz

  1. Mallorca61%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Cadiz13%

1.76 expected goals for Mallorca

0.68 expected goals for Cadiz

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Mallorca the clear favourite: 61% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Mallorca defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Mallorca attack, which scores 22% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Mallorca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Mallorca attack+22%
  3. Cadiz defence−4%

Expected goals1.77

Cadiz

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cadiz attack−5%
  2. Mallorca defence−47%

Expected goals0.68

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.6 for Mallorca and 4.1 for Cadiz

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.3 for Mallorca and 2.5 for Cadiz

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards52%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

24.9 expected

14.9 for Mallorca and 10.0 for Cadiz

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

26.0 expected

13.6 for Mallorca and 12.4 for Cadiz

  1. Over 20.5 fouls84%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls73%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls59%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.