Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Eibar vs Almeria

  1. Eibar42%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Almeria31%

1.50 expected goals for Eibar

1.41 expected goals for Almeria

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Eibar has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Almeria win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Almeria attack, which scores 55% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Eibar defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Eibar

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Eibar attack+24%
  3. Almeria defence−20%

Expected goals1.50

Almeria

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Almeria attack+55%
  2. Eibar defence−33%

Expected goals1.41

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.2 for Eibar and 4.8 for Almeria

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.4 for Eibar and 2.5 for Almeria

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards36%

Shots

28.4 expected

14.6 for Eibar and 13.8 for Almeria

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

26.5 expected

13.7 for Eibar and 12.8 for Almeria

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls75%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls62%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.