Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon

  1. AD Ceuta FC32%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Sporting Gijon41%

1.21 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC

1.73 expected goals for Sporting Gijon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Sporting Gijon has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a AD Ceuta FC win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sporting Gijon defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

AD Ceuta FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. AD Ceuta FC attack−3%
  3. Sporting Gijon defence−17%

Expected goals1.21

Sporting Gijon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sporting Gijon attack+11%
  2. AD Ceuta FC defence+15%

Expected goals1.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.4 for AD Ceuta FC and 3.8 for Sporting Gijon

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.0 for AD Ceuta FC and 2.9 for Sporting Gijon

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards36%

Shots

27.2 expected

16.1 for AD Ceuta FC and 11.1 for Sporting Gijon

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

27.0 expected

11.3 for AD Ceuta FC and 15.7 for Sporting Gijon

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls78%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls66%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.