Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba

  1. Celta de Vigo II43%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Cordoba33%

1.90 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II

1.85 expected goals for Cordoba

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Celta de Vigo II has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Cordoba win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cordoba attack, which scores 18% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Celta de Vigo II defence, which lets in 15% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Celta de Vigo II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Celta de Vigo II attack+9%
  3. Cordoba defence+15%

Expected goals1.89

Cordoba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cordoba attack+18%
  2. Celta de Vigo II defence+15%

Expected goals1.85

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals52%
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.0 for Celta de Vigo II and 5.1 for Cordoba

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

5.0 expected

2.3 for Celta de Vigo II and 2.8 for Cordoba

  1. Over 3.5 cards74%
  2. Over 4.5 cards56%
  3. Over 5.5 cards39%

Shots

26.4 expected

12.8 for Celta de Vigo II and 13.6 for Cordoba

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

26.4 expected

12.1 for Celta de Vigo II and 14.4 for Cordoba

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls75%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls62%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.