Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Burgos vs Castellón

  1. Burgos34%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Castellón37%

0.99 expected goals for Burgos

1.31 expected goals for Castellón

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Burgos defence, which lets in 39% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Castellón defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Burgos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Burgos attack+7%
  3. Castellón defence−38%

Expected goals1.00

Castellón

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Castellón attack+56%
  2. Burgos defence−39%

Expected goals1.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.1 for Burgos and 4.2 for Castellón

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.9 expected

2.8 for Burgos and 2.1 for Castellón

  1. Over 3.5 cards73%
  2. Over 4.5 cards55%
  3. Over 5.5 cards37%

Shots

25.6 expected

12.9 for Burgos and 12.6 for Castellón

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.5 for Burgos and 12.9 for Castellón

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.