Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Albacete vs Sabadell

  1. Albacete40%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Sabadell30%

1.10 expected goals for Albacete

1.09 expected goals for Sabadell

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Albacete has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Sabadell win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sabadell defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Sabadell attack, which scores 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Albacete

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Albacete attack−2%
  3. Sabadell defence−26%

Expected goals1.10

Sabadell

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sabadell attack−18%
  2. Albacete defence−3%

Expected goals1.09

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%
  3. Over 2.5 goals40%
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.0 for Albacete and 4.2 for Sabadell

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Albacete and 2.5 for Sabadell

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

24.7 expected

12.1 for Albacete and 12.6 for Sabadell

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots61%
  3. Over 24.5 shots49%

Fouls

26.9 expected

12.2 for Albacete and 14.7 for Sabadell

  1. Over 20.5 fouls87%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls77%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls65%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.