Castellón vs Sporting Gijon

Castellón52%
Draw27%
Sporting Gijon21%

1.61 expected goals for Castellón

0.98 expected goals for Sporting Gijon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Castellón has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Sporting Gijon win at 21%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
Over 1.5 goals74%It happened
Over 2.5 goals44%It happened
Over 3.5 goals26%It happened
Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Both teams score50%
Castellón or draw80%
Draw or Sporting Gijon48%
No draw73%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.7 for Castellón and 4.3 for Sporting Gijon

Over 8.5 corners62%
Over 9.5 corners52%
Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.7 expected

1.6 for Castellón and 3.1 for Sporting Gijon

Over 3.5 cards69%
Over 4.5 cards51%
Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

24.9 expected

14.5 for Castellón and 10.4 for Sporting Gijon

Over 20.5 shots73%
Over 22.5 shots62%
Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

23.4 expected

10.8 for Castellón and 12.6 for Sporting Gijon

Over 20.5 fouls70%
Over 22.5 fouls55%
Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.