Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Almeria2-2Oviedo

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a Almeria win (50%).

Almeria vs Oviedo

  1. Almeria50%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Oviedo23%

1.58 expected goals for Almeria

1.08 expected goals for Oviedo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Almeria has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Oviedo win at 23%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.0 for Almeria and 4.6 for Oviedo

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

5.2 expected

2.1 for Almeria and 3.0 for Oviedo

  1. Over 3.5 cards76%
  2. Over 4.5 cards59%
  3. Over 5.5 cards42%

Shots

27.6 expected

16.6 for Almeria and 11.0 for Oviedo

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

27.9 expected

14.7 for Almeria and 13.2 for Oviedo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls82%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls71%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.