Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon

  1. Stockport County66%
  2. Draw21%
  3. AFC Wimbledon13%

2.32 expected goals for Stockport County

0.77 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Stockport County the clear favourite: 66% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the AFC Wimbledon attack, which scores 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Stockport County attack, which scores 40% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Stockport County

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Stockport County attack+40%
  3. AFC Wimbledon defence+10%

Expected goals2.32

AFC Wimbledon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. AFC Wimbledon attack−29%
  2. Stockport County defence−20%

Expected goals0.76

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.0 for Stockport County and 4.2 for AFC Wimbledon

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.4 for Stockport County and 2.2 for AFC Wimbledon

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

27.6 expected

19.1 for Stockport County and 8.6 for AFC Wimbledon

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

21.1 expected

10.1 for Stockport County and 11.0 for AFC Wimbledon

  1. Over 20.5 fouls53%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls37%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls24%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.