Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Peterborough vs Luton

  1. Peterborough23%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Luton56%

1.29 expected goals for Peterborough

2.34 expected goals for Luton

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Luton the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Luton attack, which scores 47% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Luton defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Peterborough

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Peterborough attack0%
  3. Luton defence−15%

Expected goals1.29

Luton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Luton attack+47%
  2. Peterborough defence+17%

Expected goals2.34

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.6 for Peterborough and 4.8 for Luton

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Peterborough and 2.1 for Luton

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

27.7 expected

13.5 for Peterborough and 14.2 for Luton

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

25.2 expected

12.3 for Peterborough and 12.9 for Luton

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.