Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United

  1. Leyton Orient34%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Cambridge United39%

1.07 expected goals for Leyton Orient

1.22 expected goals for Cambridge United

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cambridge United defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Leyton Orient defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 12.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Leyton Orient

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Leyton Orient attack−11%
  3. Cambridge United defence−20%

Expected goals1.07

Cambridge United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cambridge United attack+6%
  2. Leyton Orient defence−15%

Expected goals1.22

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

12.1 expected

5.5 for Leyton Orient and 6.7 for Cambridge United

  1. Over 8.5 corners78%
  2. Over 9.5 corners70%
  3. Over 10.5 corners61%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Leyton Orient and 2.3 for Cambridge United

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

27.0 expected

13.6 for Leyton Orient and 13.4 for Cambridge United

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

23.3 expected

12.3 for Leyton Orient and 11.0 for Cambridge United

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.