Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Leicester vs Stevenage

  1. Leicester46%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Stevenage28%

1.44 expected goals for Leicester

1.07 expected goals for Stevenage

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Leicester has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Stevenage win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Stevenage defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Stevenage attack, which scores 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Leicester

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Leicester attack+17%
  3. Stevenage defence−18%

Expected goals1.44

Stevenage

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Stevenage attack−15%
  2. Leicester defence−8%

Expected goals1.07

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.8 for Leicester and 4.5 for Stevenage

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Leicester and 2.4 for Stevenage

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.9 expected

14.3 for Leicester and 11.6 for Stevenage

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

24.4 expected

12.0 for Leicester and 12.4 for Stevenage

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.