Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Bradford vs Huddersfield

  1. Bradford36%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Huddersfield36%

1.01 expected goals for Bradford

1.04 expected goals for Huddersfield

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bradford defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Huddersfield attack, which scores 45% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 11.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bradford

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bradford attack−16%
  3. Huddersfield defence−21%

Expected goals1.01

Huddersfield

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Huddersfield attack+45%
  2. Bradford defence−48%

Expected goals1.04

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.1 expected

6.1 for Bradford and 5.0 for Huddersfield

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners62%
  3. Over 10.5 corners52%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Bradford and 2.3 for Huddersfield

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.2 expected

13.2 for Bradford and 12.0 for Huddersfield

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

25.8 expected

13.3 for Bradford and 12.5 for Huddersfield

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.