Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Barnsley vs Oxford United

  1. Barnsley29%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Oxford United47%

1.19 expected goals for Barnsley

1.71 expected goals for Oxford United

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Oxford United has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Barnsley win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Oxford United defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Barnsley defence, which lets in 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 11.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Barnsley

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Barnsley attack+3%
  3. Oxford United defence−24%

Expected goals1.19

Oxford United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Oxford United attack+3%
  2. Barnsley defence+21%

Expected goals1.70

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.2 expected

5.7 for Barnsley and 5.5 for Oxford United

  1. Over 8.5 corners72%
  2. Over 9.5 corners63%
  3. Over 10.5 corners53%

Cards

5.1 expected

2.6 for Barnsley and 2.5 for Oxford United

  1. Over 3.5 cards75%
  2. Over 4.5 cards58%
  3. Over 5.5 cards40%

Shots

30.0 expected

15.9 for Barnsley and 14.1 for Oxford United

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

27.5 expected

15.6 for Barnsley and 11.8 for Oxford United

  1. Over 20.5 fouls89%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls80%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls69%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.