Probably Football

Matches

League One (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Stevenage0-1Milton Keynes Dons

The model gave this result 28%. Its most likely result was a Stevenage win (46%).

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons

  1. Stevenage46%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Milton Keynes Dons28%

1.49 expected goals for Stevenage

1.10 expected goals for Milton Keynes Dons

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Stevenage has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Milton Keynes Dons win at 28%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.2 for Stevenage and 4.6 for Milton Keynes Dons

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Stevenage and 2.1 for Milton Keynes Dons

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.1 expected

15.4 for Stevenage and 9.7 for Milton Keynes Dons

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

24.1 expected

10.6 for Stevenage and 13.6 for Milton Keynes Dons

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.