Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Swindon Town vs Rotherham

  1. Swindon Town47%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Rotherham26%

1.67 expected goals for Swindon Town

1.09 expected goals for Rotherham

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Swindon Town has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Rotherham win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rotherham defence, which lets in 38% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Swindon Town attack, which scores 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Swindon Town

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Swindon Town attack−20%
  3. Rotherham defence+38%

Expected goals1.67

Rotherham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Rotherham attack−19%
  2. Swindon Town defence−1%

Expected goals1.09

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.0 for Swindon Town and 4.9 for Rotherham

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Swindon Town and 2.3 for Rotherham

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

24.4 expected

13.3 for Swindon Town and 11.1 for Rotherham

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

22.3 expected

10.5 for Swindon Town and 11.7 for Rotherham

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.