Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Newport County vs Chesterfield

  1. Newport County29%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Chesterfield44%

1.04 expected goals for Newport County

1.61 expected goals for Chesterfield

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Chesterfield has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Newport County win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Newport County attack, which scores 32% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Newport County

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Newport County attack−32%
  3. Chesterfield defence+1%

Expected goals1.04

Chesterfield

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Chesterfield attack+11%
  2. Newport County defence+7%

Expected goals1.61

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

4.4 for Newport County and 4.8 for Chesterfield

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Newport County and 2.5 for Chesterfield

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

24.4 expected

11.3 for Newport County and 13.1 for Chesterfield

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

24.8 expected

12.7 for Newport County and 12.1 for Chesterfield

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.