Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers

  1. Fleetwood Town44%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Bristol Rovers28%

1.35 expected goals for Fleetwood Town

1.00 expected goals for Bristol Rovers

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Fleetwood Town has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Bristol Rovers win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Fleetwood Town attack, which scores 18% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Bristol Rovers attack, which scores 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Fleetwood Town

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Fleetwood Town attack−18%
  3. Bristol Rovers defence+9%

Expected goals1.35

Bristol Rovers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Bristol Rovers attack−16%
  2. Fleetwood Town defence−12%

Expected goals1.00

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.3 for Fleetwood Town and 4.8 for Bristol Rovers

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Fleetwood Town and 2.5 for Bristol Rovers

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

25.2 expected

14.4 for Fleetwood Town and 10.8 for Bristol Rovers

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

25.0 expected

11.3 for Fleetwood Town and 13.8 for Bristol Rovers

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.