Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Crewe vs Barnet

  1. Crewe32%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Barnet43%

1.51 expected goals for Crewe

2.00 expected goals for Barnet

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Barnet has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Crewe win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Barnet attack, which scores 32% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Crewe

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Crewe attack−8%
  3. Barnet defence+10%

Expected goals1.51

Barnet

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Barnet attack+32%
  2. Crewe defence+11%

Expected goals2.00

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

4.6 for Crewe and 4.7 for Barnet

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Crewe and 2.1 for Barnet

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

25.7 expected

12.7 for Crewe and 12.9 for Barnet

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

24.6 expected

12.4 for Crewe and 12.1 for Barnet

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.