Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Colchester vs Walsall

  1. Colchester35%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Walsall37%

1.07 expected goals for Colchester

1.21 expected goals for Walsall

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Colchester attack, which scores 27% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Colchester

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Colchester attack−27%
  3. Walsall defence−3%

Expected goals1.07

Walsall

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Walsall attack−4%
  2. Colchester defence−8%

Expected goals1.20

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.8 for Colchester and 5.0 for Walsall

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.8 for Colchester and 2.5 for Walsall

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

26.2 expected

13.8 for Colchester and 12.3 for Walsall

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

26.2 expected

14.0 for Colchester and 12.2 for Walsall

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.