Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Accrington ST vs Northampton

  1. Accrington ST48%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Northampton24%

1.42 expected goals for Accrington ST

0.87 expected goals for Northampton

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Accrington ST has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Northampton win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Northampton attack, which scores 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Accrington ST

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Accrington ST attack−9%
  3. Northampton defence+3%

Expected goals1.42

Northampton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Northampton attack−38%
  2. Accrington ST defence+2%

Expected goals0.87

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

6.2 for Accrington ST and 4.3 for Northampton

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Accrington ST and 2.2 for Northampton

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

24.5 expected

14.6 for Accrington ST and 10.0 for Northampton

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

22.8 expected

11.0 for Accrington ST and 11.8 for Northampton

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.