Probably Football

Matches

League Two (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Crawley Town1-1Tranmere

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a Crawley Town win (40%).

Crawley Town vs Tranmere

  1. Crawley Town40%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Tranmere33%

1.34 expected goals for Crawley Town

1.20 expected goals for Tranmere

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.6 for Crawley Town and 4.0 for Tranmere

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for Crawley Town and 2.3 for Tranmere

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

26.5 expected

14.1 for Crawley Town and 12.4 for Tranmere

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

24.6 expected

12.1 for Crawley Town and 12.5 for Tranmere

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.