Thursday 29 October, 11:30
CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv
- CSKA Moscow47%
- Draw25%
- Lokomotiv28%
1.69 expected goals for CSKA Moscow
1.09 expected goals for Lokomotiv
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
CSKA Moscow
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- CSKA Moscow attack+65%
- Lokomotiv defence−32%
Expected goals1.69
Lokomotiv
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Lokomotiv attack+45%
- CSKA Moscow defence−44%
Expected goals1.09
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Over 3.5 goals30%
- Over 4.5 goals15%
- Both teams score48%
- CSKA Moscow or draw71%
- Draw or Lokomotiv53%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.7 expected
5.4 for CSKA Moscow and 4.2 for Lokomotiv
- Over 8.5 corners59%
- Over 9.5 corners48%
- Over 10.5 corners38%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.6 for CSKA Moscow and 2.7 for Lokomotiv
- Over 3.5 cards61%
- Over 4.5 cards42%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
26.4 expected
16.5 for CSKA Moscow and 9.9 for Lokomotiv
- Over 20.5 shots79%
- Over 22.5 shots69%
- Over 24.5 shots58%
Fouls
25.9 expected
12.1 for CSKA Moscow and 13.8 for Lokomotiv
- Over 20.5 fouls83%
- Over 22.5 fouls72%
- Over 24.5 fouls59%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.