Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Derby vs Bolton

  1. Derby33%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Bolton42%

1.32 expected goals for Derby

1.80 expected goals for Bolton

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Bolton has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Derby win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bolton attack, which scores 28% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Derby

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Derby attack−5%
  3. Bolton defence−8%

Expected goals1.32

Bolton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Bolton attack+28%
  2. Derby defence+3%

Expected goals1.80

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.7 for Derby and 4.5 for Bolton

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for Derby and 2.3 for Bolton

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

30.1 expected

15.4 for Derby and 14.8 for Bolton

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

20.9 expected

10.9 for Derby and 10.0 for Bolton

  1. Over 20.5 fouls51%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls36%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls23%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.