Cardiff vs West Ham
- Cardiff25%
- Draw21%
- West Ham54%
1.40 expected goals for Cardiff
2.69 expected goals for West Ham
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
West Ham has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Cardiff win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the West Ham attack, which scores 122% more goals than an average team. Next comes the West Ham defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Cardiff
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Cardiff attack+39%
- West Ham defence−33%
Expected goals1.40
West Ham
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- West Ham attack+122%
- Cardiff defence−11%
Expected goals2.69
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals98%
- Over 1.5 goals92%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Over 3.5 goals58%
- Over 4.5 goals39%
- Both teams score57%
- Cardiff or draw46%
- Draw or West Ham75%
- No draw79%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.4 expected
5.1 for Cardiff and 5.3 for West Ham
- Over 8.5 corners65%
- Over 9.5 corners55%
- Over 10.5 corners45%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.6 for Cardiff and 2.4 for West Ham
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards36%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
29.8 expected
14.2 for Cardiff and 15.6 for West Ham
- Over 20.5 shots89%
- Over 22.5 shots83%
- Over 24.5 shots74%
Fouls
23.1 expected
10.4 for Cardiff and 12.6 for West Ham
- Over 20.5 fouls68%
- Over 22.5 fouls53%
- Over 24.5 fouls38%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.