Watford vs Lincoln
- Watford25%
- Draw23%
- Lincoln52%
1.01 expected goals for Watford
2.09 expected goals for Lincoln
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Lincoln has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Watford win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lincoln attack, which scores 38% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Watford attack, which scores 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.3 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Watford
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Watford attack−18%
- Lincoln defence−18%
Expected goals1.01
Lincoln
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Lincoln attack+38%
- Watford defence+12%
Expected goals2.09
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Over 3.5 goals38%
- Over 4.5 goals20%
- Both teams score53%
- Watford or draw48%
- Draw or Lincoln76%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.3 expected
5.3 for Watford and 4.0 for Lincoln
- Over 8.5 corners55%
- Over 9.5 corners44%
- Over 10.5 corners34%
Cards
5.2 expected
2.8 for Watford and 2.4 for Lincoln
- Over 3.5 cards76%
- Over 4.5 cards59%
- Over 5.5 cards42%
Shots
28.4 expected
14.7 for Watford and 13.7 for Lincoln
- Over 20.5 shots86%
- Over 22.5 shots78%
- Over 24.5 shots68%
Fouls
24.1 expected
11.9 for Watford and 12.2 for Lincoln
- Over 20.5 fouls74%
- Over 22.5 fouls61%
- Over 24.5 fouls46%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.