Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Preston vs Sheffield Utd

  1. Preston25%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Sheffield Utd51%

1.02 expected goals for Preston

2.06 expected goals for Sheffield Utd

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Sheffield Utd has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Preston win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sheffield Utd attack, which scores 28% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Sheffield Utd defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Preston

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Preston attack−15%
  3. Sheffield Utd defence−20%

Expected goals1.02

Sheffield Utd

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sheffield Utd attack+28%
  2. Preston defence+18%

Expected goals2.06

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.3 for Preston and 4.8 for Sheffield Utd

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Preston and 2.4 for Sheffield Utd

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

28.8 expected

12.7 for Preston and 16.1 for Sheffield Utd

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

23.5 expected

13.0 for Preston and 10.5 for Sheffield Utd

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.