Portsmouth vs Swansea
- Portsmouth36%
- Draw27%
- Swansea37%
1.07 expected goals for Portsmouth
1.24 expected goals for Swansea
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Swansea defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Portsmouth defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.6 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Portsmouth
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Portsmouth attack+4%
- Swansea defence−31%
Expected goals1.07
Swansea
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Swansea attack+23%
- Portsmouth defence−26%
Expected goals1.24
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals89%
- Over 1.5 goals68%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Over 3.5 goals20%
- Over 4.5 goals9%
- Both teams score50%
- Portsmouth or draw63%
- Draw or Swansea64%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.6 expected
5.5 for Portsmouth and 4.0 for Swansea
- Over 8.5 corners58%
- Over 9.5 corners47%
- Over 10.5 corners37%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.9 for Portsmouth and 2.2 for Swansea
- Over 3.5 cards59%
- Over 4.5 cards40%
- Over 5.5 cards24%
Shots
23.6 expected
13.8 for Portsmouth and 9.9 for Swansea
- Over 20.5 shots67%
- Over 22.5 shots54%
- Over 24.5 shots42%
Fouls
22.2 expected
11.0 for Portsmouth and 11.2 for Swansea
- Over 20.5 fouls62%
- Over 22.5 fouls46%
- Over 24.5 fouls31%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.