Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Birmingham vs Millwall

  1. Birmingham42%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Millwall31%

1.38 expected goals for Birmingham

1.15 expected goals for Millwall

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Birmingham has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Millwall win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Birmingham defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Millwall defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Birmingham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Birmingham attack+27%
  3. Millwall defence−28%

Expected goals1.38

Millwall

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Millwall attack+29%
  2. Birmingham defence−34%

Expected goals1.15

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.2 for Birmingham and 4.7 for Millwall

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Birmingham and 2.5 for Millwall

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

24.9 expected

13.9 for Birmingham and 11.0 for Millwall

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.9 for Birmingham and 11.5 for Millwall

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.