Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Wolves vs Cardiff
- Wolves45%
- Draw25%
- Cardiff30%
1.70 expected goals for Wolves
1.32 expected goals for Cardiff
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Wolves has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Cardiff win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Wolves defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cardiff attack, which scores 46% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.0 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Wolves
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Wolves attack+33%
- Cardiff defence−15%
Expected goals1.70
Cardiff
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Cardiff attack+46%
- Wolves defence−34%
Expected goals1.32
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Over 3.5 goals36%
- Over 4.5 goals19%
- Both teams score54%
- Wolves or draw70%
- Draw or Cardiff55%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.0 expected
5.6 for Wolves and 4.4 for Cardiff
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
4.4 expected
2.1 for Wolves and 2.3 for Cardiff
- Over 3.5 cards65%
- Over 4.5 cards46%
- Over 5.5 cards29%
Shots
28.6 expected
16.6 for Wolves and 12.0 for Cardiff
- Over 20.5 shots86%
- Over 22.5 shots79%
- Over 24.5 shots69%
Fouls
22.8 expected
11.5 for Wolves and 11.2 for Cardiff
- Over 20.5 fouls65%
- Over 22.5 fouls50%
- Over 24.5 fouls35%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.