Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Swansea vs Blackburn

  1. Swansea43%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Blackburn30%

1.27 expected goals for Swansea

1.00 expected goals for Blackburn

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Swansea has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Blackburn win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Swansea defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Blackburn defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Swansea

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Swansea attack+12%
  3. Blackburn defence−25%

Expected goals1.27

Blackburn

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Blackburn attack+4%
  2. Swansea defence−29%

Expected goals1.00

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.3 for Swansea and 4.7 for Blackburn

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.5 for Swansea and 2.4 for Blackburn

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

26.8 expected

16.4 for Swansea and 10.3 for Blackburn

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

20.8 expected

10.5 for Swansea and 10.3 for Blackburn

  1. Over 20.5 fouls51%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls35%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls22%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.