Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Southampton vs QPR

  1. Southampton54%
  2. Draw24%
  3. QPR22%

2.04 expected goals for Southampton

1.05 expected goals for QPR

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Southampton has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a QPR win at 22%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Southampton attack, which scores 67% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Southampton defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 8.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Southampton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Southampton attack+67%
  3. QPR defence−19%

Expected goals2.04

QPR

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. QPR attack+28%
  2. Southampton defence−40%

Expected goals1.05

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.4 expected

4.5 for Southampton and 3.9 for QPR

  1. Over 8.5 corners45%
  2. Over 9.5 corners35%
  3. Over 10.5 corners26%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Southampton and 2.5 for QPR

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

25.9 expected

14.4 for Southampton and 11.6 for QPR

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

21.4 expected

10.1 for Southampton and 11.2 for QPR

  1. Over 20.5 fouls55%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.