Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Burnley vs Portsmouth

  1. Burnley42%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Portsmouth32%

1.55 expected goals for Burnley

1.34 expected goals for Portsmouth

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Burnley has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Portsmouth win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Burnley attack, which scores 32% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Portsmouth defence, which lets in 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Burnley

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Burnley attack+32%
  3. Portsmouth defence−22%

Expected goals1.55

Portsmouth

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Portsmouth attack+9%
  2. Burnley defence−9%

Expected goals1.34

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.1 for Burnley and 4.8 for Portsmouth

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Burnley and 2.3 for Portsmouth

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

26.3 expected

12.5 for Burnley and 13.7 for Portsmouth

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

21.4 expected

10.2 for Burnley and 11.2 for Portsmouth

  1. Over 20.5 fouls55%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.