Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Bolton vs Bristol City

  1. Bolton46%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Bristol City28%

1.54 expected goals for Bolton

1.11 expected goals for Bristol City

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Bolton has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Bristol City win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bolton attack, which scores 29% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Bristol City defence, which lets in 21% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bolton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bolton attack+29%
  3. Bristol City defence−21%

Expected goals1.54

Bristol City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Bristol City attack−9%
  2. Bolton defence−10%

Expected goals1.11

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.0 for Bolton and 4.8 for Bristol City

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Bolton and 2.2 for Bristol City

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

25.9 expected

13.2 for Bolton and 12.7 for Bristol City

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

22.8 expected

11.2 for Bolton and 11.5 for Bristol City

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.