Probably Football

Matches

Championship (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Sheffield Utd1-1Derby

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Sheffield Utd win (50%).

Sheffield Utd vs Derby

  1. Sheffield Utd50%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Derby26%

1.85 expected goals for Sheffield Utd

1.15 expected goals for Derby

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Sheffield Utd has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Derby win at 26%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.8 for Sheffield Utd and 5.0 for Derby

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for Sheffield Utd and 2.4 for Derby

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

24.4 expected

12.4 for Sheffield Utd and 12.0 for Derby

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots46%

Fouls

22.1 expected

10.7 for Sheffield Utd and 11.5 for Derby

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.