Lincoln vs Burnley

Lincoln42%
Draw25%
Burnley33%

1.62 expected goals for Lincoln

1.43 expected goals for Burnley

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Lincoln has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Burnley win at 33%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
Over 3.5 goals37%It happened
Over 4.5 goals19%It happened

Both teams score54%
Lincoln or draw67%
Draw or Burnley58%
No draw75%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.7 for Lincoln and 5.1 for Burnley

Over 8.5 corners60%
Over 9.5 corners50%
Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Lincoln and 2.2 for Burnley

Over 3.5 cards59%
Over 4.5 cards40%
Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

27.4 expected

12.8 for Lincoln and 14.7 for Burnley

Over 20.5 shots83%
Over 22.5 shots74%
Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

21.7 expected

10.7 for Lincoln and 11.0 for Burnley

Over 20.5 fouls58%
Over 22.5 fouls42%
Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.