Cardiff vs Birmingham

Cardiff39%
Draw25%
Birmingham36%

1.52 expected goals for Cardiff

1.53 expected goals for Birmingham

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.6 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
Over 1.5 goals81%It did not happen
Over 2.5 goals51%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals36%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals19%It did not happen

Both teams score54%
Cardiff or draw65%
Draw or Birmingham61%
No draw75%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

6.1 for Cardiff and 4.5 for Birmingham

Over 8.5 corners67%
Over 9.5 corners57%
Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Cardiff and 2.5 for Birmingham

Over 3.5 cards65%
Over 4.5 cards46%
Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

29.5 expected

17.0 for Cardiff and 12.5 for Birmingham

Over 20.5 shots89%
Over 22.5 shots82%
Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

22.8 expected

10.5 for Cardiff and 12.3 for Birmingham

Over 20.5 fouls66%
Over 22.5 fouls51%
Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.